Final Power Rankings, AwardWatch, and Some Observations from the First Half
Just hours before the second half officially begins, we give you our Power Rankings, AwardWatch, and some predictions at the midpoint of the baseball season. The first half (really a little bit more than that for most teams) showed us that great talent does not certainly always a good team make (Chicago Cubs) and that the AL East is the best division in baseball. We have also learned that people have begun to perceive Albert Pujols, not Alex Rodriguez, as the best player in the league, and that, in this game, being the best player does not always translate into unmitigated success (see: The Home Run Derby, Innings 1-4 of the All-Star Game). We'll get to more Pujols later. For now, let's move to the Rankings.
If you have been keeping an eye on things, the top 3 of the Power Rankings has been pretty much dominated by the AL East and the Los Angeles Dodgers, who, while their in-division competition isn't much to speak of, won more than one series against good teams. Into the break, teams like the Phillies and Angels mounted a late surge to put some distance between themselves and the other contenders in the division. The Yankees seem content to be the second best team in the AL East, which means that they'll control the coveted wild-card spot at the end of the season, unless someone makes a major push. That leaves the hard-charging Angels in the undesirable position of needing to win the division to make the postseason. Since the Rangers seem to be unwilling to let go, it will be close… and now the Angels have lost Vlad and Torii Hunter, two of their best players. Elsewhere, the Cardinals and Tigers rule the Midwest, and the Giants showcase terrific pitching to keep themselves at least partly in the conversation. The Marlins, Mets, and Braves muddle in mediocrity in the East, and even with the season-long struggles in Philadelphia, no team has put up much of a fight for that division's lead.
1. Dodgers: The return of Manny Ramirez has masked the downward turns of Andre Ethier and Orlando Hudson, who now really on lucky bounces or the occasional "meat-pitch" to get on base. Somehow, the Dodgers have kept winning, and not just against lame NL West opponents. They wouldn't be here if they hadn't won series against the Angels and the Rangers. The Rockies and Giants are also starting to come alive, but Los Angeles holds a strong lead in the division, and it will take quite a feat to unseat them. We still aren't sure just how good they will play come October, but for now, especially as they keep winning even as the division improves, it is hard to make a good case against them.
2. Red Sox: The Red Sox reminded us last week why they, and not the Yankees, are pretty much the best team in the AL East. With what seems like a hundred good options to pitch every inning and an offense that combines talent with a knack for the big play, Boston retook the lead and goes into the second half swinging. If they were to meet any NL team in the World Series, we would be hard-pressed to bet against them.
3. Yankees: They lost a few games, and appear to be lazily doing what is necessary to secure a playoff berth. With all the talent present in the Bronx, it is amazing that they feel only motivated enough to play this way, reminiscent of desire to only do as much work would get me an A- in high school, because an A- was good enough to advance in life at a decent pace.
4. Phillies: They hit a horrific slump, mostly thanks to awful pitching and a leadoff hitter batting at the Mendoza line. Then, they came home and found their stride against the hated, non-Amazin' Mets. In the article we wrote, Taking the Necessary Steps, we noted that if J-Roll improved just a bit, and more importantly, if the pitching remained relatvely mediocre, the Phillies would be fine. Immediately after our last Power Rankings, J-Roll seemed to wake up, and the pitching suddenly became not just good, but great. 9 of their last 10? Something great happened to the offense, and Philadelphia will try to ride their success into tonight's series against the second-place Marlins. This will be a major test. Jamie Moyer and now Pedro Martinez may struggle. A lot. But J.A. Happ has become the de facto ace for the Phightin's, and Pedro may not be the last addition Philly makes this season.
5. Angels: For a few days, Chone Figgins and Co. held their own without Hunter and Vlad, but it is hard to imagine Los Angeles playing as well as they have been without their two biggest offensive stars. The pitching, which has been surprising, will also have to hold up. Lots of "ifs" in LA.
6. Tigers: Though Cabrera was snubbed for the All-Star game, the Tigers' offense remains a potent force. Now, with Justin Verlander and the rest of a decent rotation, the Tigers are winning games. The Twins and White Sox have the talent to be threatening, but with so many power hitters, Detroit seems to put up big numbers every night, and, while they haven't completely outpaced the rest of their league or division, they are holding on for now.
7. Cardinals: We predicted Chris Carpenter's return would be a major factor in the NL Central. It has been. The Machine has gone into a higher gear (is that even possible) in recent games, and St. Louis has pulled ahead in this race. Milwaukee has talent, but Ryan Ludwick's return to prominence has put St. Louis back in the lead.
8. Rays: The Blue Jays occupied this spot, but Roy Halladay's injury (a good but not great team – a Cy Young pitcher = losses) and the resurgence of the Rays (Evan Longoria + pitching = wins) has Toronto on the outside looking in. They are a really streaky team. Lots of losses, then lots of wins, then lots of losses, and now a bunch of wins in a row (again) for the Rays. Unfortunately for them, only a serious effort to topple the Yankees or Red Sox as AL East leader or wild-card-berth-holder will take Tampa into October.
9. Rangers: Any idea who has hit the most homers in the AL? That would be Texas. It's as if every player in the lineup has the ability to go deep on any pitch. The Rangers don't seem to care that none of them hit for average–and the results seem to show success. Between Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Andruw Jones and Michael Young, there is a pretty good chance that someone is going yard every game. Only a game and a half back in the AL West, and the Angels could face troubles with recent injury problems…
10. Giants: They are still pretty far away from that division lead in the West, but San Francisco has gotten very hot behind the bat of Pablo Sandoval and the Cy Young pitching of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and… Jonathan Sanchez? They have a pretty solid shot at the Wild Card if things continue as planned. We all know about LA, and Colorado has really started to win, so the inter-division games will be the deciding factor for San Fran. In case you were wondering where Milwaukee went… so are we. They have fallen several games out of the NL Central race and, subsequently, out of these rankings.
And now to your AwardWatch. No surprise in the NL MVP race, but you will see some new names elsewhere as late pushes from a few players unseated season-long candidates. You'll have to read to find out…
NL:
MVP: Albert Pujols… Nothing new here. Everyone knows that he has been the MVP of the first half. The Cardinals are first in the NL Central thanks to his power and patience and defense and a host of other machine-like attributes. Read Below for our second half thoughts of Pujols.
Cy Young: Tim Lincecum… The Dodgers looked like the unquestionable choice to win the NL West in the beginning of the season. They still look good, but thanks to some terrific pitching from Tim Lincecum and the rather unheralded Matt Cain, the Giants are making progress. It could be back to back Cy Young for the NL's leader in strikeouts. He gets it done, and its also fun to watch, a key ingredient in winning these sorts of awards. Interestly enough, Lincecum's first inning troubles in the All-Star game were pretty much the fault of the aforementioned first-half MVP.
ROY: J.A. Happ… Colby Rasmus is locked in what is starting to look like a two-horse race for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. But it is getting harder and harder to ignore Happ's unbeaten record (6-0) and his 5th best ERA in the league. Both players play important roles for playoff-caliber teams, making this an interesting duel. Rasmus had the spot for most of the first half, but Happ makes the grade because he is starting to prove that his numbers are not simply the result of a few fortunate outings.
AL:
MVP: Joe Mauer… He won't bat .400, but he just might win the MVP award. The only thing holding him back is his team's performance in a not-so-easy division. Like Happ, Mauer gets his first AwardWatch nod at the end of the first half even though others have led for most of the way. His OPS is good for first in the AL, and he's hit 15 home runs while playing for weeks fewer than other deserving candidates (like Kevin Youkilis and Ben Zobrist, two players most likely to hold the distinction of second and third most deserving). If he continues to play like this, the Twins should start to win more too.
Cy Young: Zack Greinke… Roy Halladay hasn't been himself since getting injured, which should make those interested in a trade a little more wary than the googly-eyed media members that talk about him (just like every other top-5 player at his position) as "possibly the best" [insert position here] in the league. Yeah, he's good, but Greinke has been worth more than his weight in gold this season.
ROY: Ricky Romero… Romero has simply been the best rookie in the AL thus far. A little injury hiccup cost him some time and some ERA, but he has come back with a vengeance, unseating the shaky David Price with a sub-3 ERA.
And finally, how about some predictions? Sorry AL fans, our main insights concern Albert Pujols, David Wright, and Ryan Howard.
Albert Pujols, as clearly noted in several places in this post, has been the MLB MVP so far this season. He leads the NL in homers and RBIs, and is in the hunt for the batting title as well. But our close examination of his numbers leads us to believe that something might change in the second half. As staggering as this seems, Albert's batting average should according to BABIP theory, go up. Considering all of the home runs he has hit this year and the general number of times he puts the bat on the ball, Pujols's batting average might be guessed to be even higher than it is. He has hit into "unlucky" (we don't actually believe in luck, but you get the picture" situations more often than one might suspect this season. Expect that BA to go up. At the same time, we also think his home run numbers might decline. "The Machine" is certainly one of the game's premier power hitters, but his numbers this year would appear to project a home run total almost double that of what he has put up in the past two years. He is capable of incredible things, but it seems likely that just as some of his ground balls might find the hole more often, some of his long-balls may turn into doubles as the season goes on.
David Wright has been an anomaly this season, batting for conspicuously lower power than usual while still posting a terrific average. That is about to change. For the worse. His BABIP is incredible this season–one of the highest we have every seen. While it is perfectly possible that Wright has changed his hitting style and is playing more OBP ball these days, it is more likely that, while his batting average may stay a little higher than usual this season, he has been really, really fortunate so far. A 400+ BABIP is rather incredible. He and Mark Reynolds, striking out at an alarming rate, will most likely see their averages drop precipitously. Wright has been mired in a horrible slump as of late, but, and we hate to say it, this could only be the beginning.
And finally, another strikeout artist: Ryan Howard. We think that his numbers will actually improve in the second half, based on his recent plate appearances and some interesting numbers from the past few weeks. He homered twice last week, a pleasant surprise for Philly fans who hadn't seen a Howard long-ball in a good bit, but more importantly, he struck out 11 times in the last 13 and started to hit line drives as opposed to dying fly balls as July began. Sure 11 for 13 doesn't sound like much, but it is a little bit better than Howard's usual K line, and it may suggest a new plate approach for the slugger, whose OBP in July is a fancy .408, much higher than his pre-July OBP of .331. His average might just hop above .270 by September.
That's all we've got… We hope you enjoyed our first half recap, and that enjoy the rest of the season! Stay with us.
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